BallotCast

NOTICE: This forecast ended on November 4, 2025, and it is final.

VA Gubernatorial Forecast

Spanberger (D) has a 97% chance of victory.

Earle-Sears (R) has a 3% chance of victory.

Race Estimate

Spanberger (D) is expected to receive 55.97% of the vote.

Earle-Sears (R) is expected to receive 43.73% of the vote.

Latest Analysis

• 2025 Virginia Governor: State of the Race (Sept. 30)September 30, 2025
  Things have only gotten worse for Earle-Sears since the start of election season.
• An Introduction to Snap AnalysisSeptember 29, 2025
  BallotCast will now begin the process of writing short, fact-based analysis about elections, current events, and other topics.