Ballot proposals are much more difficult to forecast than partisan elections, however, the extreme importance of California’s Proposition 50 made it necessary for us to launch a prediction.
Proposition 50 is a proposal that would temporarily put a map passed by the California legislature into effect through the 2030 elections. This was created in response to Texas’s new congressional map, which is likely to flip five seats from blue to red.
If Proposition 50 is passed, it’s almost certain that Democrats will gain at least three seats in the House of Representatives. Additionally, the seats of David Valadao (CA-22) and Darrell Issa (CA-48) will be made much bluer, making it more difficult for Republicans to hold the seats. All in all, Proposition 50 is meant to negate the gains Republicans made with Texas’s new map.
BallotCast currently predicts that Proposition 50 has a 83% chance of passing, with an estimated victory margin of 10.26 percentage points. However, as we said: this is very difficult to forecast, and we mostly have to rely on polls. Therefore, we suggest you take our information for this race with a grain of salt compared to our other predictions – at least until more polls are conducted.