Interactive Model
If you’re interested in predicting a custom election, testing out different hypothetical scenarios, or simply examining how our forecasts work, take a look at our interactive model below! It uses every metric from our real model.
To ensure an accurate result, be sure to fill out the four required categories: ‘2024 Result’, ‘2020 Result’, ‘2016 Result’, and ‘Personal Prediction.’ All other categories are optional. Additionally, for any margins, use positive values for metrics favorable to Democrats, and use negative values for metrics favorable to Republicans.
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Enter the year that the custom election will take place. Leave empty if irrelevant. All years before 2025 will be considered invalid, and they will be replaced with the default value. It’s important to note that if you enter a year far into the future, the result could be inaccurate and extreme.
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Enter the national environment as a margin. Leave empty if irrelevant. Positive values indicate an environment favorable to Democrats, while negative values indicate an environment favorable to Republicans.
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Enter the polling average of the custom election as a margin. Leave empty if irrelevant. Positive values indicate a polling average favorable to the Democrat, while negative values indicate a polling average favorable to the Republican.
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Enter the percentage of the vote that all third parties and independents are expected to receive in the custom election. Leave empty if irrelevant.
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Enter the 2024 presidential margin in the district, state, or region of the custom election. Positive values indicate a result favorable to Kamala Harris, while negative values indicate a result favorable to Donald Trump. Failure to include this metric may result in a very inaccurate result.
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Enter the 2020 presidential margin in the district, state, or region of the custom election. Positive values indicate a result favorable to Joe Biden, while negative values indicate a result favorable to Donald Trump. Failure to include this metric may result in a very inaccurate result.
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Enter the 2016 presidential margin in the district, state, or region of the custom election. Positive values indicate a result favorable to Hillary Clinton, while negative values indicate a result favorable to Donald Trump. Failure to include this metric may result in a very inaccurate result.
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Enter your personal prediction for the margin of this election. Positive values indicate a prediction favorable to the Democrat, while negative values indicate a prediction favorable to the Republican. Failure to include this metric may result in a very inaccurate result.
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Only adjust if the incumbent is running for re-election in the custom election.
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This is a subjective measure of how good the candidates are in the custom election. Do not adjust if irrelevant.
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Select the type of custom election. Do not adjust if irrelevant or if the election type is not listed.