BallotCast

NOTICE: This forecast ended on November 4, 2025, and it is final.

NJ Gubernatorial Forecast

Sherrill (D) has a 85% chance of victory.

Ciattarelli (R) has a 15% chance of victory.

Race Estimate

Sherrill (D) is expected to receive 53.33% of the vote.

Ciattarelli (R) is expected to receive 45.27% of the vote.

Latest Analysis

• 2025 New Jersey Governor: State of the Race (Sept. 30)September 30, 2025
  As of now, we expect Sherrill to pull off a victory, albeit by a much smaller margin than other Democrats in recent statewide races.
• An Introduction to Snap AnalysisSeptember 29, 2025
  BallotCast will now begin the process of writing short, fact-based analysis about elections, current events, and other topics.