All active forecasts were last updated on

VA Gubernatorial Forecast

Spanberger (D) has a % chance of victory.

Earle-Sears (R) has a % chance of victory.

Race Estimate

Spanberger (D) is expected to receive % of the vote.

Earle-Sears (R) is expected to receive % of the vote.

State of the Race

Republicans celebrated Glenn Youngkin’s win in 2021, however, we do not expect their celebration to be replicated this year. We find Abigail Spanberger very likely to flip this seat back to the Democrats.