In the 2021 election for governor of Virginia, we saw an extremely close contest. This time, the environment is very different.
According to our model, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former congresswoman, has a 96%-4% chance of victory over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the incumbent lieutenant governor. Additionally, as of September 30, 2025, our race estimate predicts Spanberger winning by approximately 11.92 percentage points.
To be quite blunt, things have only gotten worse for Earle-Sears since the start of election season. The historical precedent of the opposition party typically performing well in off-year elections already helps Spanberger significantly. That, coupled with Virginia’s continuous shift towards the Democrats, creates an extremely difficult environment for Earle-Sears that has become significantly worse over the past few months.
Five weeks out from Election Day, and a clear picture is being painted: Abigail Spanberger is extremely likely to be the next governor of Virginia. The race isn’t over yet, and there’s potential for an upset to occur; however, things aren’t looking too good for Republicans.