BallotCast

NOTICE: This forecast ended on November 4, 2025, and it is final.

CA Proposition 50 Forecast

“YES” has a >99% chance of victory.

“NO” has a <1% chance of victory.

Race Estimate

“YES” is expected to receive 59.54% of the vote.

“NO” is expected to receive 40.46% of the vote.

Latest Analysis

• 2025 California Proposition 50: State of the Race (Sept. 30)September 30, 2025
  BallotCast currently predicts that Proposition 50 has a 83% chance of passing, with an estimated victory margin of 10.26 percentage points.
• An Introduction to Snap AnalysisSeptember 29, 2025
  BallotCast will now begin the process of writing short, fact-based analysis about elections, current events, and other topics.